Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
E-commerce retail sales in the United States are illustrative of the diffusion of e-commerce, either as a complement or a substitution to conventional retail sales. From a negligible share of less than 1% in early 2000, it steadily grew until around 2015, when the trend accelerated. E-commerce became mainstream with well-known online retail platforms, with 10% of total retail sales in 2019. Most of this growth was associated with a shift in consumer behavior, resulting in a substitution from store sales to online sales. By the mid-2010s, distributional capabilities and e-commerce logistics were well-established, making home deliveries reliable.
The lockdowns associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020 had a substantial impact on e-commerce activity, which surged in 2020 to 16% of total retail sales. E-commerce represented an alternative to accessing retail goods, creating a sudden spike in demand. Once the lockdowns ended, the share declined to 15%. In the following quarters, the share declined slightly, reflecting a readjustment of retail activity with more normalized activities. This endured until the middle of 2022, when the share of online retail sales resumed its upward trend. The transitory effect of the pandemic on e-commerce is apparent and lasted about two years.