Source: WTO and World Bank. Current USD.
Global trade has grown in absolute and relative terms, particularly since 1990, when global exports surged amid rapid industrialization in developing economies and massive offshoring of manufacturing, particularly in China. The value of global exports first exceeded US$ 1 trillion in 1977, and by 2008, more than US$ 16 trillion in merchandise was exported. During the same time period, the share of the world GDP accounted for by merchandise trade, imports, and exports combined, surged from 18% to 52%. This trend is correlated with a growth in volumes handled by international transportation, particularly container shipping. Yet, this rapid growth is skewed by the international division of production, in which parts can be traded several times before an assembled good is ready for final consumption. This is particularly the case for countries having a high level of economic integration, such as NAFTA/USMCA (Canada, the United States, and Mexico) or the European Union.
The growth of exports is indicative of a cycle in which trade expanded (up to the 1980s), accelerated (1980-2000), and reached peak growth (2000-2008). Growth in trade was also accompanied by a surge in trade imbalances. The entry of China into the WTO in late 2001 significantly impacted global trade, which accelerated due to an expansion of Chinese exports. Eventually, a phase of maturity in global trade will be reached. The financial crisis of 2008-2009 was accompanied by a significant decline in global merchandise trade, amounting to nearly 25% in one year. The primary factor behind this decline was a decline in durable-goods consumption (e.g., furniture, appliances, cars), as consumers can postpone such purchases when uncertain about the future. Trade rebounded afterward, primarily driven by emerging economies.
However, since 2012, a peaking in global trade has been observed, with the value of exports leveling off and its share of the global GDP declining. In 2015 and 2016, global trade experienced a significant decline, largely attributable to slower growth in East Asia, particularly China, and falling commodity prices, including petroleum. Although the COVID-19 pandemic negatively affected global trade in 2020, trade surged in 2021, in part due to deferred demand and massive stimulus policies.