Diffusion of Personal Computing Devices, 1977-2025

Diffusion of Personal Computing Devices 1977 2025

Source: Pre-2000 data compiled by H. Dediu and J. Reiner. Recent data from Gartner, Inc. or other industry observers

Personal computing devices, enabling individuals to execute customizable programs, became available in the late 1970s and mass-market products by the mid-1980s. By 2025, more than 270 million PC platform devices were being sold worldwide, down from 352.7 million units in 2012 (the peak year). There was also a surge in sales in 2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the strong demand for home computing. The diffusion of personal computing underwent three distinct phases:

  • The setting of standards. By the late 1970s, several different platforms using different standards and operating systems were being introduced. Interoperability was nearly nonexistent, implying that each platform required its own hardware and software. The main contenders were Apple (Apple II), Commodore (64 and Amiga), Atari (400/800), and Tandy (TRS-80). The introduction of the IBM PC in 1981 marked the downfall of competing standards, as the PC platform would evolve from the adoption of the MS-DOS operating system. In 1984, MacOS, the first graphical user interface available for a home computer, would carve out a niche that the Macintosh platform would evolve from. By the late 1980s, non-PC and MacOS devices had disappeared from the market.
  • Performance, interface, and interconnectivity. By 1990, the two prevailing platforms, with the PC dominating (selling 8 to 10 times as many units as the Macintosh), had undergone widespread adoption in the consumer and corporate markets. Performance in processing, memory, and storage capacity grew exponentially (Moore’s law) while costs declined. Graphical user interfaces became the standard (e.g., Windows), enabling users to operate complex applications quickly. By the late 1990s, the development of the Internet had opened an entirely new range of services for personal computing devices, such as telecommunications (e.g., email), e-commerce, information access, and entertainment. Portable computing devices (laptops) also became widely available.
  • Mobile computing. By 2005, cellular phones, which had emerged as mass-market products in the mid-1990s, saw their integration of features previously available only on desktop and laptop computers or on specialized devices such as digital cameras or global positioning system receivers. The cellular phone evolved from a telecommunications device (with basic features such as an address book, a clock, and a calendar) to a true mobile personal computing device offering a wide range of customizable features (apps). Symbian (Nokia), BlackBerry, iPhone, and Android were the most salient platforms. Their widespread adoption was aided by the ubiquity of wireless networks in developed and developing countries alike. Similar to what happened in the early stages of commercial computing, two mobile telephone platforms dominated (Android and iPhone), while Symbian and BlackBerry were discontinued as platforms in 2014 and 2015, respectively. In 2013, Android device sales exceeded 1 billion units, making this platform the most dominant personal computing device in the world. With the introduction of the iPad in 2010, tablet personal portable computing devices became available, creating new niches (e.g., ebooks) that are more complementary than competitive with conventional personal computing devices such as the PC. The latter reached peak market diffusion with sales stabilizing and new competitors introducing tablet products.